Money Matters
Issue 39
March/April 2021
More than a year later, economists and asset managers around the world are attempting to figure out the impact of the Covid pandemic on economies and markets. Physicians and scientists work to treat and cure the physical symptoms of long-haul Covid. But who is focusing on the impact on mental health?
Many people are struggling with the emotional long-haul of the pandemic which is currently not understood or recognised. We lead this edition with an article that focuses on this neglected aspect of the pandemic and gives encouraging insight on how to protect your mental health.
We also include the latest article by JP Landman who five months ago wrote that ‘growth figures beyond 2021 will fully depend on how much structural reform we undertake…’.
It is now some five months later, and JP shares his view on the progress of structural reform despite the political infighting.
Please remember that the Stone Wealth Management Team is always happy to chat to you if you are feeling fearful about your finances and what the future might hold for you.
There’s a Name for the Blah you’re feeling: It’s called Languishing.
by Adam Grant.
Published: The New York Times – 19 April 2021
This may be the dominant emotion of 2021.
At first, I didn’t recognize the symptoms that we all had in common. Friends mentioned that they were having trouble concentrating. Colleagues reported that even with vaccines on the horizon, they weren’t excited about 2021. A family member was staying up late to watch “National Treasure” again even though she knows the movie by heart. And instead of bouncing out of bed at 6am, I was lying there until 7, playing Words with Friends.
Structural Reform: Slow but Steady
by JP Landman
South Africa has now been in a ‘demographic recession’ for six years because the population grew faster than the economy. Our population growth is 1,6% pa (allowing for one immigrant every 2,5 minutes). Since 2015, economic growth has not kept pace with that number. The latest figures from the South African Reserve Bank show that by the end of 2020, per capita incomes were 11% lower in constant terms than at the end of 2014 – a six-year lag. At this stage economists expect growth of around 3,5% for 2021, more than double population growth of 1,6%. (This is provided there is no Covid-19 or other catastrophic development.)
QUARTER 1
March 2021:
Economic and Market Quarterly Review.
INTERNATIONAL: The IMF continues to revise its global economic growth projections upwards. The global economy is now forecast to grow at 6% this year, compared to a contraction of 3.3% in the previous year. There have however been continuing warnings about widening inequality and divergence between developed and developing nations. Given the sheer size of the fiscal stimulus packages, there is the expectation that the USA will surpass the level of output it would have reached in 2021 in the absence of a pandemic. Many other developed markets will only reach pre-pandemic levels of output in 2022 with some emerging markets taking until 2023.